Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:37:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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6B 0x6b3f…d75b crypto 197 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (144 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$53 (-3%) realized −$49 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate36%70W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day144.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days−$48
14 days−$114
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$112
other 40% −$8
sports 7% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (144 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -29.5% -36.3% 31% 17% -12.4%
≤30d 194 -21.0% -28.5% 36% 24% -15.1%
≤90d 194 -21.0% -28.5% 36% 24% -15.1%
all 194 -21.0% -28.5% 36% 24% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover144.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.5% 24% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -35.4% 13% -23.2%
15% -41.6% 8% -30.6%
20% -47.3% 5% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$49
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses70 / 124
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)194 / 197
History coverage9d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day144.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 44¢ 69¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+58%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 57¢ 16¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-73%)
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 28 $5 −$2 -32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $133 −$1 -1%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $50 +$5 +11%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $41 +$28 +68%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $82 −$1 -1%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 −$1 -49%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $14 −$11 -74%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $54 +$5 +8%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -85%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? Jun 27 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $13 −$7 -52%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $37 −$4 -11%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $44 +$9 +20%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1 $0 -4%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $47 −$2 -5%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $52 +$11 +21%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $15 −$1 -4%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $27 +$14 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $2 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$2 -33%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $13 +$6 +47%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $17 $0 +2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $32 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $14 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $33 −$7 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $13 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $23 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $49 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $28 −$9 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $12 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $13 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 25 $18 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $23 −$7 -32%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $8 −$1 -16%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 $0 -3%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $7 −$3 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 59¢ $5 59m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 96¢ $67 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 95¢ $66 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 86¢ $66 1h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 29¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $67 1h
Will Jordan vs. Argentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $69 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 95¢ $41 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 95¢ $41 4h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 4h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 82¢ $41 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 82¢ $40 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 99¢ $42 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 1¢ $1 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 2¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.44 · official $5.55 (match) · 1419 history records