Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:19:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6B 0x6b44…3992 sports 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21,298 (+12%) realized +$19,873 · open +$1,425
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate61%40W / 26L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$2,732per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$2,209est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,328now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,591
7 days−$6,359
14 days+$3,025
30 days+$814
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$21,024
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -10.4% -19.0% 50% 50% -30.9%
≤30d 41 -1.2% -10.6% 56% 56% -8.9%
≤90d 66 +6.3% -3.8% 61% 61% +0.3%
all 66 +6.3% -3.8% 61% 61% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.8% 61% +0.3%
10% ← realistic here -13.0% 61% -9.3%
15% -21.4% 59% -18.0%
20% -29.1% 47% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$3,599) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +25% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,935 vs −$2,223 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$4,328
Realized+$19,873
Unrealized+$1,425
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses40 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$2,209
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage43d
Avg bet$2,732
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays Texas Rangers 54¢ 80¢ $2,903 $4,328 +$1,425 (+49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 27 $5,527 +$2,409 +44%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 26 $5,050 −$5,000 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 24 $4,492 −$4,444 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $2,691 −$2,653 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 24 $2,881 +$2,382 +83%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 24 $782 +$891 +114%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $3,224 +$2,458 +76%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 21 $2,439 −$2,402 -98%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $3,969 +$2,360 +60%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $1,768 +$2,469 +140%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $4,125 +$2,454 +60%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $2,747 +$2,461 +90%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $4,363 +$2,486 +57%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $2,770 −$2,732 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 16 $2,512 −$2,475 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $3,969 +$2,360 +60%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $5,364 +$2,449 +46%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $1,556 +$1,922 +124%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $1,537 +$1,971 +128%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $2,433 +$2,011 +83%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $1,043 −$1,023 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $3,213 +$2,150 +67%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 07 $2,450 +$1,945 +79%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 07 $2,610 −$2,578 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $1,949 −$1,949 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $2,175 −$2,175 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 06 $2,263 −$2,263 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 06 $2,016 −$2,016 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $2,355 −$2,355 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 06 $2,398 −$2,398 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $2,450 −$2,450 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $2,736 −$2,736 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 06 $3,003 −$3,003 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 06 $2,999 −$2,999 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $3,503 +$1,830 +52%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 06 $4,631 +$1,926 +42%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Houston Astros Jun 05 $3,304 +$1,891 +57%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 04 $3,870 +$1,928 +50%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $5,007 +$1,889 +38%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros May 30 $1,379 +$1,926 +140%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 30 $2,926 +$1,893 +65%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 27 $1,715 +$1,954 +114%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 27 $911 −$892 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 26 $5,168 +$1,498 +29%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox May 25 $2,091 +$1,950 +93%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 24 $1,715 −$1,688 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 24 $4,225 +$1,929 +46%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 24 $1,822 −$1,794 -98%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 24 $2,550 +$1,944 +76%
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves May 23 $3,649 +$1,906 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Texas Rangers 54¢ $2,943 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 67¢ $5,050 21h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 69¢ $5,527 21h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 64¢ $4,492 2d
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 52¢ $2,691 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 46¢ $48 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Milwaukee Brewers 46¢ $734 3d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 54¢ $2,881 3d
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $3,224 6d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 49¢ $2,439 6d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 62¢ $3,969 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 41¢ $1,768 7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $4,125 10d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 52¢ $2,747 10d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 63¢ $4,363 10d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 53¢ $2,749 10d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 52¢ $21 10d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 50¢ $2,512 10d
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 62¢ $3,969 14d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 68¢ $5,364 16d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 44¢ $1,556 16d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 44¢ $126 16d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 43¢ $1,412 16d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 34¢ $1,043 16d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 54¢ $2,433 16d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ $652 17d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ $1,625 17d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ $410 17d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ $8 17d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 63¢ $97 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,327.95 · official $4,489.24 · 204 history records