Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b45…d3ad other 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$115 (-2%) realized −$89 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%24W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$108
7 days+$186
14 days−$58
30 days−$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$291
sports 14% +$400
crypto 6% −$162
world 3% −$113
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +60.6% +45.3% 67% 58% -3.1%
≤30d 32 +4.0% -5.9% 50% 47% -10.0%
≤90d 38 +5.2% -4.8% 50% 47% -10.1%
all 63 -17.9% -25.7% 38% 35% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 35% -11.6%
10% -32.8% 30% -20.1%
15% -39.3% 25% -27.8%
20% -45.3% 17% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$35 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$89
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses24 / 39
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage118d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 18¢ 8¢ $46 $21 −$26 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $501 +$19 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $505 +$117 +23%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $101 +$48 +48%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $103 −$84 -82%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $404 −$71 -17%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$78 +510%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $203 +$96 +47%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $202 +$80 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $69 +$97 +140%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $403 −$400 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$221 +216%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $203 −$135 -67%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$91 +89%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $262 +$65 +25%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $232 −$143 -61%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$18 -86%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 −$28 -69%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$24 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $252 +$92 +36%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $10 −$9 -87%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 +$6 +121%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $10 $0 -4%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $15 −$15 -96%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? May 15 $10 +$6 +57%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $7 $0 +6%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 15 $10 −$6 -60%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 08 $1 $0 -33%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 08 $1 $0 -25%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 08 $1 $0 -0%
Will US or Israel strike Iran first? Mar 07 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Feb 26 $5 +$2 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $520 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $501 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 85¢ $622 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 11h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 3¢ $18 26h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 18¢ $27 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 63¢ $307 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 28h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 28h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 47h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 47h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $299 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $203 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $69 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $302 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $63 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 7d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $192 7d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 8d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20.60 · official $20.60 (match) · 162 history records