Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:55:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b46…a580 sports 73 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$48 (-3%) realized −$49 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%33W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$28
14 days−$46
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$43
sports 40% −$2
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -4.9% -13.9% 52% 48% -7.7%
≤30d 72 +1.6% -8.1% 46% 42% -12.1%
≤90d 72 +1.6% -8.1% 46% 42% -12.1%
all 72 +1.6% -8.1% 46% 42% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 42% -12.1%
10% -16.9% 36% -20.5%
15% -24.9% 31% -28.2%
20% -32.3% 24% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses33 / 39
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage12d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $157 −$26 -16%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $159 −$2 -2%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 24 $118 +$41 +34%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $98 +$21 +21%
Croatia to score first vs. Panama? Jun 24 $70 +$26 +37%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $40 +$35 +86%
England to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 23 $72 −$32 -44%
Portugal to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $62 +$11 +17%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $133 −$14 -11%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $25 −$18 -72%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $86 +$8 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $56 +$30 +54%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$1 +41%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $3 −$1 -18%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $33 +$16 +48%
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 21 $24 $0 +1%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $29 −$27 -92%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$13 -43%
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 20 $26 +$14 +54%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $23 −$23 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 +$4 +45%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$9 +62%
United States to score first vs. Australia? Jun 19 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $13 +$13 +102%
Mexico to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 $0 -7%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +30%
Canada to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +29%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $6 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 −$9 -81%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 +$2 +19%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $7 +$9 +137%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +70%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $19 +$4 +22%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 −$11 -70%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $14 +$3 +23%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -32%
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$3 +250%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 77¢ $131 15m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 91¢ $157 38m
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 83¢ $157 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $159 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Qatar? SELL Yes 99¢ $159 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina to score first vs. Qatar? BUY Yes 73¢ $118 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $98 20h
Croatia to score first vs. Panama? SELL Yes 99¢ $95 20h
Croatia to score first vs. Panama? BUY Yes 72¢ $70 21h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 22h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 22h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $40 23h
England to score first vs. Ghana? SELL Yes 47¢ $40 23h
England to score first vs. Ghana? BUY Yes 83¢ $72 27h
Portugal to score first vs. Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 27h
Portugal to score first vs. Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 85¢ $62 36h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $56 43h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 69¢ $57 43h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $76 43h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 43h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $94 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $86 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $86 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $3 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 57¢ $2 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 3d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.27 · official $3.27 (match) · 162 history records