Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6B 0x6b46…dbc7 weather 844 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$149 (+0%) realized +$131 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%746W / 21L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$4,181now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$138
14 days+$32
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$84
other 2% −$4
sports 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 -0.5% -10.0% 95% 1% -11.2%
≤30d 481 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 1% -9.3%
≤90d 767 +0.1% -9.5% 97% 1% -9.4%
all 767 +0.1% -9.5% 97% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 1% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 1% -18.0%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$20 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$4,181
Realized+$131
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses746 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions77
Markets (closed)767 / 844
History coverage74d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 77 History 767 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 20? No 98¢ 99¢ $183 $185 +$2 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on June 21? No 99¢ 98¢ $153 $153 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 19? No 96¢ 99¢ $146 $150 +$5 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $142 $143 +$1 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? No 99¢ 99¢ $138 $139 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $135 $135 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $124 $124 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? No 99¢ 100¢ $115 $116 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $114 $113 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C or higher on June 21? No 98¢ 97¢ $113 $112 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 21? No 99¢ 97¢ $110 $108 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 20? No 98¢ 95¢ $102 $99 −$2 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Africa reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $95 $95 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 92¢ $92 $92 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 90¢ $91 $90 −$2 (-2%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 88¢ $89 $88 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 88¢ $89 $88 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 84¢ $83 $84 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? No 93¢ 96¢ $80 $82 +$2 (+3%)
Will Czechia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 89¢ $74 $81 +$6 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 20? No 100¢ 99¢ $80 $79 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $97 +$2 +2%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $199 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 18? Jun 18 $23 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 38°C on June 18? Jun 18 $69 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $55 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $36 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 16? Jun 17 $79 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $126 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $163 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $412 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $230 −$161 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $105 −$29 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 15? Jun 16 $105 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $251 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $36 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $194 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $109 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $65 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C or higher on June 15 Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on June 15? Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $92 −$22 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $78 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $232 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $62 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 15 $44 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $63 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 12 Jun 15 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 15 $56 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on June 14? Jun 14 $32 $0 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $104 +$6 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $158 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $66 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $76 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 98¢ $113 28m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $98 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 27°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $4 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $89 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $110 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 93¢ $80 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 43°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $19 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or below on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $127 4h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $15 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 29°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $35 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 30°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $40 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $30 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $109 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 20? BUY No 98¢ $11 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $50 4h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 99¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $115 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 37°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $10 4h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $5 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 21? BUY No 99¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,181.41 · official $4,179.89 (match) · 1926 history records