Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:50:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6B
0x6b46…85ce
sports · 20 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$25 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$34 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$70
Realized−$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses4 / 14
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage27d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%
Chart Positions 2 History 18 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days−$30
14 days−$30
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Up 50¢ 100¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+100%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score No 53¢ 0¢ $106 $0 −$106 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 0¢ $75 $0 −$75 (-100%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 31¢ 0¢ $93 $0 −$93 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $203 +$97 +48%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $93 −$93 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $45 +$35 +76%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $57 +$113 +197%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $106 −$106 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $76 −$75 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 18 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 18 $10 −$5 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 74% −$30
crypto 18% −$5
other 8% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 4¢ $41 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $203 14h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 31¢ $77 14h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 31¢ $6 14h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 31¢ $6 14h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 31¢ $2 14h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 31¢ $1 14h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 31¢ $0 14h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $26 41h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $118 41h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 41h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $25 41h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $32 43h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $12 43h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $1 43h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $61 43h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $57 43h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $45 47h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $76 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $9 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +1.3% -8.3% 19% 19% -13.4%
≤30d 18 -4.3% -13.4% 22% 17% -13.9%
≤90d 18 -4.3% -13.4% 22% 17% -13.9%
all 18 -4.3% -13.4% 22% 17% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 17% -13.9%
10% -21.7% 17% -22.1%
15% -29.2% 17% -29.6%
20% -36.2% 11% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.50 · official $70.50 (match) · 58 history records