trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 100% | 0% | -8.8% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -10.3% | -18.9% | 20% | 0% | -9.9% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -10.3% | -18.9% | 20% | 0% | -9.9% |
| all | 23 | -3.5% | -12.7% | 48% | 0% | -9.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.7% | 0% | -9.1% |
| 10% | -21.1% | 0% | -17.8% |
| 15% | -28.7% | 0% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -35.7% | 0% | -33.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $34 | $34 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 23 | $34 | $0 | +1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Jun 03 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 02 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 02 | $13 | $0 | -3% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 01 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 31 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 30 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? | May 29 | $1 | $0 | -0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 28 | $35 | −$2 | -4% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 28 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | Dec 15 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? | Jun 28 | $15 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? | May 20 | $16 | +$1 | +6% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? | Apr 11 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? | Apr 10 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? | Apr 09 | $16 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi | Apr 08 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 07 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| US lifts Russia sanctions before April? | Mar 29 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| Trump meets with Carney in March? | Mar 28 | $15 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 26 | $16 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the highest temperature in NYC be 52°F or below on March 18? | Mar 19 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? | Mar 17 | $15 | +$1 | +6% |