Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:24:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b48…acaa other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate38%19W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$5
sports 25% +$19
world 21% +$4
politics 19% −$18
tech 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.9% -6.9% 50% 12% -8.4%
≤30d 15 +2.4% -7.3% 47% 13% -9.0%
≤90d 29 +0.9% -8.7% 31% 7% -9.5%
all 50 -0.3% -9.8% 38% 12% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 12% -9.5%
10% -18.5% 8% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 6% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 6% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses19 / 31
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage529d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $56 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $49 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 22 $64 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $49 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $6 $0 +2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $17 +$4 +22%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $87 −$3 -3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $81 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $59 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $16 +$2 +11%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 21 $69 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $35 −$1 -4%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 17 $40 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $270 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $4 $0 -4%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $269 +$1 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 12 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $270 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $218 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $17 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $19 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 10 $125 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 18 $7 $0 +4%
Will Tom Hanks be named in Epstein files? Jun 26 $6 $0 +4%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? May 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 18 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2025 World Series? May 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $250-500b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 09 $6 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 2–9? May 06 $7 $0 -1%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 06 $8 $0 +4%
Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election? Mar 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 27 $10 −$2 -22%
Kenny's Young Stars vs. Chuck's Global Stars Feb 19 $8 +$4 +52%
Will Marc Gasol make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Feb 19 $12 +$3 +27%
Villanova vs. Providence Feb 16 $9 +$11 +127%
Warriors vs. Rockets Feb 14 $3 +$3 +113%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian Presidential election by 0-5%? Feb 05 $1 $0 -51%
Will Lamar Jackson score a touchdown? Feb 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Curtis Samuel score a touchdown? Feb 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Iggy Azalea vs. Profits Jan 18 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $44 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $27 5h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $18 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $49 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $49 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 33h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $38 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $9 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $47 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $11 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $22 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $34 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $14 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $49 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $23 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $9 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $32 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 167 history records