Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:02:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6B 0x6b48…92ed weather 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%110W / 6L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$5
politics 1% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 47 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 98 -0.9% -10.3% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 116 -0.7% -10.1% 95% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×62.02 per $1 lost it wins $62.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses110 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage125d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $118 $118 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26? Jun 26 $118 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June Jun 26 $118 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? Jun 25 $118 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24? Jun 24 $118 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? Jun 23 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? Jun 21 $118 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $118 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 17? Jun 18 $68 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? Jun 15 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $118 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $117 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 10 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? Jun 09 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 8? Jun 09 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 5? Jun 06 $116 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $78 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4? Jun 04 $22 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $96 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 03 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 2? Jun 02 $82 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 1? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C or below on June 1? Jun 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 1? Jun 01 $81 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 25°C on May 31? Jun 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 31? Jun 01 $92 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on May 30? May 31 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on May 30? May 31 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on May 29? May 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on May 29? May 30 $93 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on May 29? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on May 28? May 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 28? May 29 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on May 28? May 29 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 58-59°F on May 27? May 28 $113 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on May 24? May 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 17? May 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on May 20? May 20 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $118 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $118 13h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 71°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $118 29h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $118 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $118 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $18 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $118 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $118 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $117 7d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $68 9d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $51 9d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $117 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $116 12d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $118 13d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $117 13d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $116 14d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 100¢ $116 14d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $116 16d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $116 17d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $116 17d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $116 18d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $115 19d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 22°C on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $116 20d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $116 21d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $78 21d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $39 21d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $22 22d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $96 22d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $26 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.67 · official $117.67 (match) · 239 history records