Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:41:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6B 0x6b49…056d crypto 1824 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 119d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$289 (+1%) realized +$289 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate73%1334W / 490L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day16.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$36
14 days+$44
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$130
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +3.8% -6.0% 85% 75% -7.1%
≤30d 534 -0.9% -10.3% 81% 72% -10.7%
≤90d 1427 -2.5% -11.7% 77% 68% -9.2%
all 1824 -0.3% -9.8% 73% 66% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 66% -9.1%
10% -18.4% 34% -17.8%
15% -26.3% 19% -25.7%
20% -33.5% 17% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$289
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses1334 / 490
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1824 / 1824
History coverage119d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day16.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1824 Trades
no open positions (272 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$8 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$3 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$25 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +25%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 13 $30 +$5 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$8 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $30 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $30 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $31 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $30 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $10 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 43h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $30 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $31 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $30 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records