Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:55:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6B 0x6b50…8a5a other 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$50 (+4%) realized +$70 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%36W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$121
7 days+$45
14 days+$63
30 days+$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$58
other 32% +$109
politics 2% $0
crypto 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +7.5% -2.7% 37% 35% -5.0%
≤30d 78 +6.9% -3.3% 46% 44% -4.4%
≤90d 78 +6.9% -3.3% 46% 44% -4.4%
all 78 +6.9% -3.3% 46% 44% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.3% 44% -4.4%
10% -12.5% 42% -13.5%
15% -21.0% 35% -21.9%
20% -28.7% 29% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$9 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$70
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses36 / 42
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions6
Markets (closed)78 / 84
History coverage29d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 73¢ 98¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+35%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 73¢ 60¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-18%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners Over 62¢ 28¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-56%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 54¢ 55¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 +$17 +336%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $49 +$13 +27%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $5 +$7 +134%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 +$62 +1252%
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $49 −$49 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$18 +187%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $49 +$26 +52%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 16 $49 −$7 -15%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 +$16 +188%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $99 +$96 +97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $60 −$2 -4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $30 −$29 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $69 −$68 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $79 +$7 +9%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $99 +$30 +30%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +65%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $15 +$9 +58%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +235%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 +$7 +24%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +50%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +31%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will Canada vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw? Jun 06 $3 +$4 +122%
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Malta win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $5 +$14 +281%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $2 +$8 +388%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 32¢ $22 36m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 91¢ $63 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First H BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $49 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 62¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 97¢ $67 16h
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $5 19h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 19h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $49 22h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 71¢ $28 26h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 28h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $10 28h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $5 29h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $5 29h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 39h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 43h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 44h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $49 44h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 45h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Over 60¢ $42 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.11 · official $43.11 (match) · 122 history records