Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:34:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b54…dc20 crypto 22 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (120 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$266 (-4%) realized +$190 · open −$456
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate26%5W / 14L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$318per market
Trades / day120.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,616now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% −$723
politics 43% −$449
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (120 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-43.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -37.2% -43.2% 26% 11% -28.2%
≤30d 19 -37.2% -43.2% 26% 11% -28.2%
≤90d 19 -37.2% -43.2% 26% 11% -28.2%
all 19 -37.2% -43.2% 26% 11% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover120.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.2% 11% -28.2%
10% ← realistic here -48.6% 5% -35.1%
15% -53.6% 5% -41.3%
20% -58.1% 5% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$501) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -32% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$56 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,616
Realized+$190
Unrealized−$456
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses5 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage1d
Avg bet$318
Trades / day120.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? No 76¢ 65¢ $3,000 $2,551 −$449 (-15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Up 13¢ 54¢ $15 $62 +$47 (+314%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 68¢ 46¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-32%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$11 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $24 +$31 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$8 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $16 −$5 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$8 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $15 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $16 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $46 −$25 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $503 −$500 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $620 −$51 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $511 −$100 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $503 +$32 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $501 +$2 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 21 $501 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 21 $558 −$58 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $19 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $10 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $6 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $7 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $39 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $3 21m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,616.48 · official $2,627.34 (match) · 127 history records