Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:50:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b56…ee89 crypto 296 markets active 1h ago coverage 264d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$142 (-7%) realized −$142 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate31%91W / 205L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$109
sports 18% −$206
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +1.3% -8.3% 82% 47% -10.9%
≤30d 18 +1.3% -8.3% 83% 44% -10.8%
≤90d 19 -1.1% -10.5% 79% 42% -11.3%
all 296 -11.1% -19.6% 31% 27% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 27% -23.7%
10% -27.3% 25% -31.0%
15% -34.3% 25% -37.6%
20% -40.7% 24% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$5 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

264d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$142
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses91 / 205
Open positions0
Markets (closed)296 / 296
History coverage264d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 296 Trades
no open positions (203 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $27 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $34 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $34 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$12 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 19 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $13 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $17 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $14 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 19 $27 −$9 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 19 $16 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 19 $17 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 19 $13 +$5 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$16 -99%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March May 31 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Mar 23 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Dec 31 $100 −$100 -100%
Celtics vs. Jazz Dec 31 $39 −$39 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Dec 31 $3 +$9 +354%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Dec 31 $3 +$9 +354%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Dec 31 $3 +$9 +354%
Solana Up or Down - December 30, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Dec 31 $3 +$9 +354%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Dec 31 $3 +$9 +354%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Dec 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Dec 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Dec 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Dec 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Dec 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Dec 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Dec 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 30, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Dec 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Dec 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Dec 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Dec 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Dec 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Dec 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Dec 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 30, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Dec 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Dec 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Dec 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Dec 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Dec 30 $3 +$9 +354%
Solana Up or Down - December 29, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Dec 30 $3 +$9 +354%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Dec 30 $3 +$9 +354%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Dec 30 $3 +$9 +354%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Dec 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Dec 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $27 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $32 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $35 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $23 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $13 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $17 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $13 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $17 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $11 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $17 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $14 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $16 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $16 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $3 88d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 99¢ $4 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 88d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $54 170d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $46 170d
Celtics vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 18¢ $18 170d
Celtics vs. Jazz BUY Jazz 21¢ $21 170d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $3 170d
Ethereum Up or Down - December 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 170d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 606 history records