Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:16:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b61…050b weather 195 markets active 2h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$90 (-1%) realized −$87 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate67%130W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$16
14 days+$8
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% −$82
sports 3% −$5
crypto 2% −$3
other 0% −$1
politics 0% $0
world 0% −$10
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +10.2% -0.3% 88% 4% -8.2%
≤30d 87 -0.5% -10.0% 87% 1% -10.4%
≤90d 115 -1.0% -10.4% 89% 1% -10.3%
all 193 -2.4% -11.7% 67% 5% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 5% -10.4%
10% -20.1% 4% -19.0%
15% -27.8% 3% -26.8%
20% -34.9% 3% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$119
Realized−$87
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses130 / 63
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)193 / 195
History coverage592d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 24? No 99¢ 99¢ $80 $79 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? No 97¢ 91¢ $42 $39 −$3 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? Jun 23 $29 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 25? Jun 23 $93 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 23? Jun 23 $54 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 23? Jun 23 $20 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $64 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 23? Jun 23 $33 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 22? Jun 23 $17 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 +$4 +307%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $95 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22? Jun 22 $6 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 39°C or higher on June 22 Jun 22 $47 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 22? Jun 22 $60 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 21 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 21? Jun 21 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 21? Jun 21 $17 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $111 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 20 $27 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 35°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 19? Jun 19 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 19? Jun 19 $55 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $108 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 18 $106 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $64 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $70 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 15 $109 −$6 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $62 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $56 −$9 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 13? Jun 13 $62 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $52 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 12? Jun 13 $113 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $113 −$3 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $65 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $19 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 11? Jun 10 $64 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 9? Jun 10 $38 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $143 −$89 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on June 9? Jun 09 $59 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 9? Jun 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 9? Jun 09 $85 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $61 −$25 -42%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ju Jun 08 $75 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 8? Jun 08 $45 −$23 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 8? Jun 08 $90 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 7? Jun 08 $44 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 7? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 7? Jun 08 $65 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 97¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $80 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 24? BUY No 97¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? SELL No 91¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 25? SELL No 99¢ $92 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $59 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 25? BUY No 92¢ $29 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 25? BUY No 99¢ $34 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $54 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $21 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $32 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $21 8h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $66 11h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 23? SELL No 100¢ $34 11h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 23? BUY No 92¢ $20 11h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 22? SELL Yes 73¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C or higher on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $33 25h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $16 25h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $24 25h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C or below on June 23? BUY No 97¢ $24 25h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $96 25h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 22? SELL No 93¢ $8 30h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $36 33h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $30 33h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $25 33h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $5 33h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 22? BUY No 94¢ $17 33h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 33h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 22? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.55 · official $118.55 (match) · 617 history records