Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:21:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b68…0e7a crypto 1166 markets active 0h ago coverage 71d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,702 (-13%) realized −$2,701 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%382W / 784L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day34.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$396
7 days−$260
14 days−$3,255
30 days−$3,080
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$2,168
sports 4% −$196
other 3% +$76
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 99 -3.9% -13.0% 44% 42% -22.8%
≤30d 432 -19.5% -27.1% 34% 32% -37.0%
≤90d 1166 -15.7% -23.7% 33% 31% -20.7%
all 1166 -15.7% -23.7% 33% 31% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.7% 31% -20.7%
10% ← realistic here -31.0% 29% -28.3%
15% -37.7% 27% -35.2%
20% -43.8% 24% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$11 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,701
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses382 / 784
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1166 / 1166
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day34.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1166 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? No 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 235 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $40 −$40 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 +$3 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $17 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +32%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -31%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$3 -26%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $201 +$21 +11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $6 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $57 −$54 -95%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $9 −$5 -50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $120 −$100 -83%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$9 -46%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $201 −$183 -91%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 −$8 -52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$3 -69%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $158 +$31 +20%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $24 +$7 +29%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $20 −$6 -27%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +91%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -18%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +38%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +59%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 +$10 +199%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 +$13 +245%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$2 +33%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $8 +$4 +53%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $9 +$3 +31%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $101 +$14 +14%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$12 +228%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $22 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$21 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY No 7¢ $1 19m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $1 21m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 39m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 34¢ $5 49m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 53¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $222 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 88¢ $13 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 2h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $201 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 27¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.07 (match) · 3500 history records