Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:28:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b69…a8a7 crypto 338 markets active 0h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$666 (-5%) realized −$650 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate62%208W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$72
14 days+$72
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$669
sports 7% +$21
other 5% −$56
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 129 +8.6% -1.8% 44% 36% -8.0%
≤30d 129 +8.6% -1.8% 44% 36% -8.0%
≤90d 333 -0.7% -10.1% 62% 59% -14.8%
all 333 -0.7% -10.1% 62% 59% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 59% -14.8%
10% -18.7% 28% -22.9%
15% -26.6% 17% -30.4%
20% -33.8% 15% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$24 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$1,174
Realized−$650
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses208 / 125
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions5
Markets (closed)333 / 338
History coverage87d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 333 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $971 $959 −$12 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $53 $70 +$18 (+34%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $100 $70 −$30 (-30%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $61 $68 +$7 (+11%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Up 46¢ 56¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $161 +$17 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$8 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$17 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $61 −$35 -57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$3 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $29 +$10 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $46 −$4 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$15 +182%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $70 +$6 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $56 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $106 +$7 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$13 +1241%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $66 +$11 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $149 −$1 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$8 +113%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $60 +$4 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $220 −$2 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$12 +574%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 17 $210 +$14 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$10 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $7 +$12 +164%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$11 +260%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$10 +123%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$13 +152%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$15 +141%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$17 +80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 17 $232 −$9 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 17 $133 +$7 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $51 +$28 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$9 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $281 +$7 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$69 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $124 −$100 -80%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$18 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $18 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $18 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $16 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $7 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 6m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $7 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $29 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $3 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $50 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $30 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,173.76 · official $1,175.28 (match) · 946 history records