Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:03:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6B 0x6b6d…8b43 sports 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$1,069 (+27%) realized +$1,077 · open −$8
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$256
7 days+$222
14 days+$358
30 days+$1,220
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$11
other 20% +$109
politics 2% +$863
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -11.1% -19.6% 38% 38% -1.3%
≤30d 35 +29.3% +17.0% 46% 46% +26.8%
≤90d 37 +27.4% +15.2% 46% 46% +14.7%
all 37 +27.4% +15.2% 46% 46% +14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.2% 46% +14.7%
10% +4.2% 46% +3.7%
15% -5.9% 46% -6.3%
20% -15.1% 43% -15.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$170 vs −$95 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$302
Realized+$1,077
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions4
Markets (closed)37 / 41
History coverage63d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 38¢ 44¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 46¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $138 +$183 +133%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $240 +$347 +145%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $204 −$204 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $204 +$83 +41%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $153 −$153 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $51 +$58 +113%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$110 +214%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$74 +144%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $307 +$408 +133%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$43 +85%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$121 +236%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $78 −$78 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $91 +$87 +96%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $51 +$80 +157%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 11 $51 +$96 +187%
1H Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 11 $51 +$41 +80%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 10 $28 +$64 +230%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $100 +$863 +865%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 21 $431 −$431 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $235 +$202 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes $10 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $102 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 38¢ $102 14h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $51 14h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $138 23h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 32¢ $55 41h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 33¢ $86 43h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 33¢ $154 45h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $204 47h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $102 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $102 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 52¢ $98 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $102 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 18¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes $21 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $102 3d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $51 4d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 31¢ $51 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $102 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 5d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $51 5d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $307 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $153 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $301.89 · official $301.89 (match) · 96 history records