Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:51:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b6e…9e84 crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$598 (-31%) realized −$598 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$598
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -15.2% -23.2% 33% 33% -37.5%
≤30d 12 -15.2% -23.2% 33% 33% -37.5%
≤90d 12 -15.2% -23.2% 33% 33% -37.5%
all 12 -15.2% -23.2% 33% 33% -37.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 33% -37.5%
10% -30.6% 25% -43.5%
15% -37.3% 17% -48.9%
20% -43.4% 17% -53.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -34% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$145 vs −$147 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$598
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $105 −$67 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 23 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 23 $204 −$99 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 23 $105 +$220 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $205 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $402 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 23 $107 −$107 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $105 +$295 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $102 +$30 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $302 +$34 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $102 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 12¢ $38 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $107 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $101 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 27 history records