Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:40:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b76…5d21 other 241 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$68 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 231L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$200per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$17
14 days−$26
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$35
sports 22% −$18
politics 10% −$8
culture 7% −$6
economics 7% −$9
crypto 4% −$2
world 3% −$2
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 240 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 231
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)240 / 241
History coverage130d
Avg bet$200
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 240 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 97¢ 97¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $324 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $587 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $169 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $351 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $514 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $103 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $621 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $52 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $175 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $130 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $382 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $607 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $439 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $495 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $257 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $187 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $112 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $430 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $185 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $341 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $89 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $360 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $195 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $133 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $391 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $327 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $387 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $192 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 09 $888 −$2 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $308 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $226 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $404 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $74 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 06 $130 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $120 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $50 1m
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 39m
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 1h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 4h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 5h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $50 7h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 8h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $50 10h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $50 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $50 13h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 14h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $50 19h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $51 21h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 22h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 24h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 25h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 26h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 30h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 33h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $51 35h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $51 36h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $51 44h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $51 45h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $52 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.69 · official $49.69 (match) · 1344 history records