Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:18:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6B 0x6b79…b1be sports 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 23d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$878 (+14%) realized +$878 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate76%16W / 5L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$209
7 days+$185
14 days+$685
30 days+$958
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$965
other 12% +$36
world 5% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +16.6% +5.5% 80% 60% -0.8%
≤30d 21 +31.2% +18.7% 76% 67% +4.5%
≤90d 21 +31.2% +18.7% 76% 67% +4.5%
all 21 +31.2% +18.7% 76% 67% +4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.7% 67% +4.5%
10% +7.3% 57% -5.5%
15% -3.0% 48% -14.7%
20% -12.5% 29% -23.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$68 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.8 per $1 lost it wins $3.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$878
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses16 / 5
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage23d
Avg bet$297
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $303 +$48 +16%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $607 +$124 +20%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $431 +$37 +8%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $505 −$62 -12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $76 +$38 +50%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $305 −$43 -14%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $892 −$40 -4%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $601 +$160 +27%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $253 +$143 +57%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $302 +$78 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $30 +$24 +78%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $200 +$82 +41%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +50%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $5 −$10 -194%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $199 +$105 +53%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $463 −$188 -40%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 7.5 Jun 03 $300 +$2 +1%
Santos FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 3.5 May 31 $240 +$108 +45%
Santos FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 2.5 May 31 $255 +$237 +93%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $254 +$98 +39%
EC Bahia vs. Botafogo FR: O/U 2.5 May 30 $7 +$15 +223%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 78¢ $311 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 81¢ $40 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $303 1h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 73¢ $286 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 61¢ $42 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 69¢ $6 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 77¢ $397 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $304 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $304 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 69¢ $468 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $128 2h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $303 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL No 61¢ $443 3d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY No 68¢ $505 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 39¢ $114 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 25¢ $76 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $262 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $305 7d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 99¢ $625 8d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 95¢ $300 8d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 95¢ $251 8d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 95¢ $49 8d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 71¢ $214 8d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 69¢ $12 8d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 90¢ $291 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $761 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 78¢ $298 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 78¢ $2 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 78¢ $113 8d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 78¢ $188 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records