Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:25:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b7f…2015 world 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 453d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate31%9W / 20L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% $0
other 20% −$1
politics 11% $0
crypto 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
sports 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -2.8% -12.1% 0% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 10 -2.5% -11.8% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 11 -1.8% -11.1% 9% 0% -9.5%
all 29 +0.2% -9.3% 31% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 3% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 3% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 3% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

453d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses9 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage453d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 20 $4 $0 -2%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $55 $0 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $35 $0 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $2 $0 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $4 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $3 $0 -9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $35 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $29 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 21 $35 +$2 +6%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -4%
Will Bill Clinton be named in Epstein files? Dec 14 $5 $0 -6%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 14 $4 $0 +6%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 500 or more times June 6–13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 25 $1 $0 +2%
Will the next Pope be from Oceania? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? May 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? May 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Socialist Party of Albania win the most seats in the next Alb May 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio May 06 $11 $0 +4%
Will 'Lilo & Stich' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Apr 15 $1 $0 -5%
Will Brice Oligui Nguema win the 2025 Gabonese Presidential election? Apr 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will Malik Beasley win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Apr 12 $4 +$1 +35%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 08 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 25? Mar 25 $12 −$1 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 18h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 18h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 20h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $34 23h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $35 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $35 30h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $35 33h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $20 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $20 36h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 45h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $0 47h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 47h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $36 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $36 26d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 27d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 31¢ $24 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 33¢ $4 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 32¢ $11 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 32¢ $18 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $4 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $36 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $37 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.36 · official $38.36 (match) · 89 history records