Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:41:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b80…e5df sports 113 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,145 (-30%) realized −$2,158 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%43W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$63per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$112est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$341now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$164
7 days−$457
14 days−$1,239
30 days−$2,173
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-37.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -33.2% -39.6% 37% 37% -29.6%
≤30d 109 -30.6% -37.2% 39% 39% -39.0%
≤90d 109 -30.6% -37.2% 39% 39% -39.0%
all 109 -30.6% -37.2% 39% 39% -39.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.2% 39% -39.0%
10% -43.2% 34% -44.8%
15% -48.7% 30% -50.1%
20% -53.7% 17% -55.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$62 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$341
Realized−$2,158
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses43 / 66
Est. fees paid−$112
Open positions4
Markets (closed)109 / 113
History coverage27d
Avg bet$63
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $61 +$44 +73%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Overwatch: VARREL vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 15 $6 −$6 -97%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $81 −$79 -97%
Rainbow Six Siege: Black Dragons e-Sports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO1) - Jun 14 $51 +$26 +52%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $110 −$107 -97%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $24 −$24 -99%
Overwatch: Geekay Esports vs Al Qadsiah (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Jun 13 $311 +$540 +174%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $51 +$58 +114%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $126 −$123 -97%
Will FathUnionSport vs. Maghreb AS de Fès end in a draw? Jun 12 $75 −$74 -99%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $50 +$22 +44%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs HMBLE (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $6 +$3 +44%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Rainbow Six Siege: Five Fears vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Ameri Jun 11 $264 −$260 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $37 −$36 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 11 $51 −$50 -97%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs CTBC Flying Oyster Academy (BO3) - Asia Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 11 $178 +$38 +22%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M Jun 10 $2 +$4 +188%
LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will RCA Zemamra vs. UnionTouargaSports end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 +$5 +52%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 09 $79 −$78 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 09 $51 +$1 +2%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 09 $68 −$66 -97%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 09 $51 −$50 -97%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 08 $7 −$7 -97%
Will UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF end in a draw? Jun 08 $30 +$13 +42%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 07 $193 −$189 -98%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs OpTic Texas (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 07 $8 −$8 -98%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Blaublitz Akita vs. Kagoshima United FC end in a draw? Jun 07 $7 +$3 +42%
Will Tokushima Vortis vs. Iwaki FC end in a draw? Jun 07 $21 +$9 +42%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Selangor Red Giants vs Team Vamos (BO7) - MP Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $51 −$50 -99%
Valorant: SwimTrek Blue vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Cha Jun 06 $636 +$348 +55%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Yandex vs Verso Time (BO5) - MLBB Conti Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Cloud9 New York (BO5) - Call of Duty Leag Jun 06 $62 +$12 +20%
Dota 2: Execration vs REKONIX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Jun 05 $50 +$21 +42%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $51 −$50 -98%
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs Shopify Rebellion Gold (BO5) - VCT Game Chan Jun 04 $190 −$186 -98%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southea Jun 04 $82 +$16 +20%
Valorant: Fennel vs QT DIG∞ (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 04 $97 −$95 -99%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast As Jun 04 $228 −$226 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Team Secret 56¢ $14 3m
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Team Secret 56¢ $17 6m
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Team Secret 56¢ $51 8m
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Team Secret 56¢ $57 15m
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Team Secret 56¢ $71 17m
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Team Secret 56¢ $51 1h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 21¢ $14 5h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 21¢ $10 5h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 21¢ $16 5h
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le BUY Falcons Esport 45¢ $2 6h
StarCraft II: Gerald vs trigger (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Sta BUY Gerald 29¢ $8 6h
StarCraft II: Gerald vs trigger (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Sta BUY Gerald 29¢ $18 10h
StarCraft II: Gerald vs trigger (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Sta BUY Gerald 27¢ $3 11h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 64¢ $51 24h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 63¢ $51 24h
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 63¢ $51 25h
Overwatch: VARREL vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Uwinks $5 25h
Overwatch: VARREL vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage BUY Uwinks $1 25h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY Top Esports Challenger $30 29h
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas BUY Top Esports Challenger $51 29h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $61 29h
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY UCAM Esports Club 10¢ $33 2d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY UCAM Esports Club 10¢ $48 2d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY UCAM Esports Club 10¢ $11 2d
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY UCAM Esports Club 10¢ $17 2d
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Eintracht Spandau 23¢ $51 2d
Rainbow Six Siege: Black Dragons e-Sports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO1) - BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 65¢ $51 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 31¢ $51 2d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 31¢ $51 2d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 62¢ $24 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $341.45 · official $341.45 (match) · 257 history records