Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:07:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6B 0x6b80…d023 other 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,448 (-18%) realized −$1,485 · open +$37
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%59W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days+$11
14 days+$199
30 days+$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$1,013
sports 31% −$700
world 4% +$277
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.3% -9.8% 57% 57% -8.8%
≤30d 30 +10.2% -0.3% 63% 60% -1.9%
≤90d 58 +14.9% +3.9% 66% 64% -0.9%
all 109 -5.1% -14.2% 54% 53% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 53% -26.3%
10% -22.4% 53% -33.3%
15% -29.9% 53% -39.8%
20% -36.7% 48% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$86 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized−$1,485
Unrealized+$37
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses59 / 50
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage172d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? No 43¢ 64¢ $78 $116 +$37 (+48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $95 −$94 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $87 +$48 +55%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $159 +$99 +62%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $107 −$105 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$40 +40%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $98 −$97 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $95 +$64 +67%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $95 +$67 +70%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $67 +$55 +83%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $81 −$80 -98%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $127 −$126 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$110 +109%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $118 +$129 +109%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $76 +$107 +140%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $73 −$72 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $64 +$51 +79%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $54 +$62 +114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$26 +52%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $60 −$59 -99%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $55 +$31 +57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $54 +$1 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $47 +$42 +90%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $44 +$19 +44%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $48 +$24 +50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $48 −$47 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $58 −$57 -99%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $69 −$69 -99%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? Jun 11 $71 +$61 +86%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 11 $71 +$69 +97%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $71 −$70 -99%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 18 $47 +$39 +83%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $53 +$44 +83%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $61 +$66 +109%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10? May 16 $38 +$22 +57%
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5) May 16 $38 +$24 +62%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 16 $39 +$31 +79%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) May 16 $51 +$27 +52%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 15 $56 −$55 -99%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-02? May 10 $36 +$21 +57%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02? May 10 $37 +$33 +90%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 10 $38 +$40 +105%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $38 −$37 -98%
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-1.5) May 03 $45 −$45 -99%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-19? May 02 $26 +$20 +76%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? May 02 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? May 02 $33 +$23 +70%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? May 02 $26 +$34 +129%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 43¢ $80 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 53¢ $95 12h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $87 27h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Ghana 61¢ $53 31h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Ghana 61¢ $106 36h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 57¢ $107 36h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 71¢ $102 2d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 61¢ $98 2d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 59¢ $95 4d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 58¢ $95 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $67 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 43¢ $81 5d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 66¢ $127 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $101 6d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $101 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $118 6d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $76 7d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 70¢ $73 7d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 55¢ $64 7d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $54 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $50 8d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 66¢ $60 8d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 65¢ $55 9d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $55 9d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $54 9d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $47 10d
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 69¢ $44 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $48 11d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 66¢ $48 11d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $58 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.67 · official $115.67 (match) · 179 history records