Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:13:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6B 0x6b81…d603 sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$466 (+5%) realized +$466 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate94%17W / 1L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$569per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$189
14 days+$412
30 days+$414
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% +$309
other 38% +$114
politics 11% +$2
crypto 5% +$2
tech 5% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +13.5% +2.7% 75% 50% -3.9%
≤30d 6 +15.7% +4.6% 83% 50% -0.5%
≤90d 16 +6.0% -4.1% 94% 19% -5.3%
all 18 +5.4% -4.7% 94% 17% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 17% -5.7%
10% -13.8% 17% -14.8%
15% -22.1% 17% -23.0%
20% -29.8% 6% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$560) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$475 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$466
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses17 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage106d
Avg bet$569
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $545 +$1 +0%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $611 +$363 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,085 −$475 -44%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $786 +$300 +38%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $563 +$223 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $560 +$2 +0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $560 +$1 +0%
Will Pierre Whatley be the Democratic nominee for GA-13? May 21 $555 +$1 +0%
Will the Liberal Democrats win control of the most London borough coun May 10 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elec May 09 $250 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $260 end of April? May 01 $559 +$1 +0%
Will LaNorris Sellers be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? Apr 28 $558 +$1 +0%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 21 $557 +$1 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $552 +$5 +1%
Knicks vs. Grizzlies Apr 03 $551 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 01 $551 +$1 +0%
LoL: Gen.G vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Mar 20 $550 +$1 +0%
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Mar 13 $549 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records