Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b83…f42d other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$33 (-1%) realized −$31 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%19W / 26L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$129
7 days+$129
14 days+$129
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$217
world 30% −$462
finance 30% +$79
sports 2% +$72
crypto 0% −$3
politics 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +161.3% +136.4% 57% 57% +90.6%
≤30d 12 +84.7% +67.1% 42% 42% -4.0%
≤90d 45 +21.6% +10.0% 42% 33% -11.2%
all 45 +21.6% +10.0% 42% 33% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.0% 33% -11.2%
10% -0.5% 29% -19.7%
15% -10.1% 24% -27.5%
20% -18.9% 18% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$35 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$31
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses19 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions9
Markets (closed)45 / 54
History coverage80d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 46¢ 46¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 54¢ 54¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 +$14 +142%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $46 +$25 +55%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$57 +1116%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $41 +$47 +116%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May? May 27 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May? May 27 $524 −$105 -20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 27 $115 +$49 +43%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,750 in May? May 26 $15 −$11 -71%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May? May 21 $21 −$11 -55%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,850 in May? May 18 $144 −$25 -17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 15 $62 +$18 +28%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,550 in May? May 14 $100 −$32 -32%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,600 in May? May 14 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in May? May 14 $193 −$10 -5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 12 $55 −$20 -37%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 09 $26 −$3 -11%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May? May 08 $31 +$2 +6%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 05 $25 −$12 -48%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in April? Apr 29 $66 +$31 +48%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? Apr 29 $10 −$2 -21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 28 $40 +$8 +20%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 28 $23 −$13 -57%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 28 $13 −$11 -85%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in April? Apr 27 $557 +$325 +58%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $84 in April? Apr 24 $18 +$18 +100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 18 $1,120 +$68 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 18 $53 +$5 +10%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in April? Apr 17 $47 −$19 -41%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 17 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 13 $4 +$14 +323%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 13 $170 −$18 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 13 $3 +$4 +165%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by A Apr 11 $680 +$85 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 10 $75 +$2 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 09 $38 −$15 -39%
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $67 +$27 +39%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $918 −$458 -50%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $216 −$115 -53%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 02 $38 +$11 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 52m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 53m
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 53m
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 53m
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $20 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $41 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 94¢ $71 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 17h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 17h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 91¢ $28 18h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 90¢ $60 18h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 22h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $15 23h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 23h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 23h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $20 23h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 41¢ $41 24h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May? BUY No 59¢ $4 20d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,400 in May? BUY No 59¢ $10 20d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in May? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 20d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? SELL No 62¢ $73 20d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,750 in May? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 22d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? BUY No 59¢ $0 23d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? BUY No 59¢ $9 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.84 · official $92.84 (match) · 834 history records