Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:37:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b84…9226 other 245 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 234L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$15
14 days−$22
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$36
sports 24% −$17
politics 7% −$5
culture 6% −$8
economics 5% −$4
crypto 4% −$5
world 4% −$3
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 183 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 244 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)244 / 245
History coverage128d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $272 $0 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $190 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $169 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $422 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $295 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $115 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $178 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $679 −$1 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $258 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $169 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $108 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $229 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $314 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $106 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $432 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $360 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $169 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $260 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $335 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $282 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $416 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $129 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $241 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $74 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $544 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $208 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $146 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $262 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $253 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $263 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $134 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $265 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 03 $254 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $50 1h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $43 2h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $43 3h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 96¢ $51 6h
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $51 8h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $51 9h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $51 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $51 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 12h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $51 15h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $51 17h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $51 18h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $51 19h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $51 21h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $52 23h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 24h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 25h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 31h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 33h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 34h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 35h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $52 40h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $52 42h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $45 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $7 2d
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $52 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $52 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.41 · official $50.41 (match) · 1314 history records