Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:37:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b85…6216 other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$13 (-4%) realized −$31 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$15
sports 41% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -7.8% -16.6% 31% 25% -17.9%
≤30d 16 -7.8% -16.6% 31% 25% -17.9%
≤90d 16 -7.8% -16.6% 31% 25% -17.9%
all 16 -7.8% -16.6% 31% 25% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 25% -17.9%
10% -24.5% 25% -25.8%
15% -31.8% 25% -32.9%
20% -38.5% 25% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -81% → late +65% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)16 / 21
History coverage3d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Over 67¢ 94¢ $46 $64 +$18 (+40%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Over 49¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $7 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $8 −$3 -34%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $25 −$1 -5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$36 +120%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $2 +$6 +276%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $2 +$8 +365%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -98%
Spread: France (-4.5) Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $35 +$18 +52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 14m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 18m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 24m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $46 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 45¢ $46 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $27 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 47¢ $24 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $25 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 6h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 9h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $67 16h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 16¢ $8 16h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 16h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 21h
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY France 22¢ $2 21h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 21h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 21h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 21h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $31 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 21h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $35 41h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 47h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.01 · official $77.62 (match) · 33 history records