Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:45:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6B 0x6b8a…a805 sports 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$254 (+6%) realized +$501 · open −$247
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$369now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$41
7 days+$315
14 days+$522
30 days+$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$183
other 19% +$111
world 5% −$197
crypto 2% −$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +12.5% +1.8% 50% 50% +2.3%
≤30d 20 +9.6% -0.9% 50% 50% -2.3%
≤90d 20 +9.6% -0.9% 50% 50% -2.3%
all 20 +9.6% -0.9% 50% 50% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 50% -2.3%
10% -10.4% 50% -11.6%
15% -19.0% 50% -20.2%
20% -27.0% 50% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$181 vs −$154 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$369
Realized+$501
Unrealized−$247
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions4
Markets (closed)20 / 24
History coverage21d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 43¢ 42¢ $297 $294 −$3 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $119 $74 −$45 (-38%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 25¢ $113 $2 −$111 (-99%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ $87 $0 −$87 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $250 −$247 -99%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $260 +$206 +79%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $200 +$194 +97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $200 −$197 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $99 −$97 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $149 +$185 +124%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $149 −$147 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $200 +$275 +137%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $150 −$134 -90%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $200 −$197 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $200 +$179 +89%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $108 +$89 +82%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$42 +276%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $200 +$210 +105%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $197 +$207 +105%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers May 30 $398 −$397 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 30 $77 −$77 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $255 +$219 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 43¢ $302 20m
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $116 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $89 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $250 18h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $467 22h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $260 31h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $394 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $200 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $200 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $99 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $30 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $149 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $149 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $476 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $200 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France $15 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 42¢ $150 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $200 4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $378 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $200 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $197 5d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $108 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $410 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $200 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $197 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $122 9d
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers BUY Kansas City Royals 89¢ $398 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $369.23 · official $369.33 (match) · 47 history records