Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:09:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b91…492e sports 531 markets active 2h ago coverage 72d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$62 (+1%) realized +$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate49%258W / 273L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day32.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$97
14 days+$97
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$117
sports 14% +$85
other 4% −$7
weather 2% −$34
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -27.5% -34.4% 52% 19% +2.8%
≤30d 21 -27.5% -34.4% 52% 19% +2.8%
≤90d 531 -0.1% -9.6% 49% 41% -10.4%
all 531 -0.1% -9.6% 49% 41% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 41% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 35% -19.0%
15% -26.1% 28% -26.8%
20% -33.4% 24% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses258 / 273
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)531 / 531
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day32.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 531 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $40 +$5 +12%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada? Jun 24 $200 +$2 +1%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $200 +$8 +4%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Austria? Jun 23 $1 $0 +1%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $1 $0 +2%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on May 24? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 8? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 13? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 11? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 12? Jun 22 $15 −$12 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 11? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 9? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 12? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 12? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $45 +$4 +9%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $49 +$51 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 21 $52 +$31 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 13? May 13 $4 +$3 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 13? May 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 10? May 10 $33 +$5 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 10? May 09 $5 +$9 +175%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 9? May 09 $13 +$6 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 8? May 08 $6 +$5 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 8? May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Apr 25 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Apr 25 $1 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 24 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Apr 24 $72 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Apr 24 $83 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 24 $33 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 24 $32 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 24 $52 +$17 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Apr 24 $22 −$4 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 24 $19 −$8 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 24 $32 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Apr 24 $35 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Apr 24 $39 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 24 $33 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Apr 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 24 $60 +$15 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 24 $39 −$5 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 24 $50 +$4 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $45 2h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada? SELL No 100¢ $202 2h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $208 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $40 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Canada? BUY No 99¢ $200 4h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $200 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $5 29h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $5 31h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 98¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Austria? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $10 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $45 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 70¢ $1 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $27 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $18 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $32 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $52 3d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C on May 24? BUY No 84¢ $9 31d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 42d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 13? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 42d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 13? BUY Yes 54¢ $1 42d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on May 12? SELL No 41¢ $4 44d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 44d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 44d
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 33°C on May 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records