Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:23:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b94…39bf other 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$586 (-16%) realized −$566 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$188per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$1,205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% −$433
crypto 14% −$225
sports 8% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -31.7% -38.2% 25% 25% -36.5%
≤30d 12 -31.7% -38.2% 25% 25% -36.5%
≤90d 12 -31.7% -38.2% 25% 25% -36.5%
all 12 -31.7% -38.2% 25% 25% -36.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.2% 25% -36.5%
10% -44.1% 25% -42.6%
15% -49.5% 25% -48.2%
20% -54.5% 25% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$170 vs −$122 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1,205
Realized−$566
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions5
Markets (closed)12 / 19
History coverage3d
Avg bet$188
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $510 $504 −$6 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $340 $338 −$2 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $190 $180 −$11 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? No 19¢ 18¢ $84 $82 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$10 -19%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$6 -12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $267 +$246 +92%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $448 −$225 -50%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $199 +$103 +52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $148 +$161 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $152 −$4 -2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $200 −$199 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $86 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 6¢ $42 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $45 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $342 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 46¢ $102 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $54 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $310 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 13h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 19h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $514 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 31h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $196 32h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $203 32h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $64 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $151 36h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $152 36h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 41¢ $51 41h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 47¢ $213 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $302 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $309 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $148 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 58¢ $148 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $98 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $200 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $194 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,204.91 · official $1,304.91 · 36 history records