Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:48:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b95…1734 crypto 61 markets active 4h ago coverage 282d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,184 (-6%) realized −$3,184 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%20W / 41L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$929per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,349
7 days+$3,349
14 days+$3,349
30 days+$3,349
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4,193
economics 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +41.3% +27.8% 38% 38% +3.5%
≤30d 32 +41.3% +27.8% 38% 38% +3.5%
≤90d 60 +4.2% -5.7% 33% 33% -16.5%
all 61 +2.5% -7.3% 33% 33% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 33% -16.6%
10% -16.1% 33% -24.6%
15% -24.2% 31% -31.9%
20% -31.7% 31% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,218) neutral
Persistence
early -34% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
17.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,461 vs −$817 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

282d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,184
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses20 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage282d
Avg bet$929
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions (40 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 24 $498 +$560 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $1,674 +$2,433 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 24 $1,009 −$969 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 24 $440 −$415 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $788 −$755 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $258 +$86 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $1,417 +$1,228 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $840 −$800 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 24 $91 −$85 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 24 $1,543 +$2,858 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $534 −$510 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 24 $1,128 −$1,070 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 24 $599 −$568 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 24 $840 −$804 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 24 $568 +$665 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 24 $1,325 −$1,270 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $703 +$904 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 24 $973 −$935 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 24 $1,363 −$1,305 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 24 $636 −$605 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $131 +$2,231 +1702%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $566 +$2,215 +391%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 24 $848 −$803 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 24 $945 −$895 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 24 $605 −$579 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $766 +$1,306 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $238 −$225 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $936 +$921 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $442 −$425 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $525 −$83 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $834 +$1,241 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 19 $2,476 −$2,363 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 19 $1,266 −$1,218 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 19 $1,122 −$1,088 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 19 $897 +$950 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 19 $579 −$556 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 19 $831 +$981 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 19 $178 −$169 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 23 $459 −$439 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 23 $765 −$739 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 21 $874 −$826 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 21 $198 −$185 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 07 $1,096 −$1,054 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 07 $2,429 −$2,342 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 07 $1,427 −$1,370 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 07 $1,909 −$1,837 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Apr 07 $1,909 +$1,859 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 07 $2,093 −$2,093 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 07 $1,499 +$811 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1,059 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1,861 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2,247 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $58 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $105 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1129 history records