Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:49:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6b96…4268 crypto 467 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 4d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (627 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,994 (-22%) realized −$1,994 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate41%189W / 276L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day626.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (627 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 465 -14.3% -22.5% 41% 28% -11.0%
≤30d 465 -14.3% -22.5% 41% 28% -11.0%
≤90d 465 -14.3% -22.5% 41% 28% -11.0%
all 465 -14.3% -22.5% 41% 28% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover626.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.5% 28% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -29.9% 21% -19.5%
15% -36.7% 15% -27.3%
20% -42.9% 10% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$1,994
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses189 / 276
Open positions2
Markets (closed)465 / 467
History coverage5d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day626.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 465 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 56¢ 52¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 55¢ 48¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 50¢ 81¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 19 $34 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $58 +$16 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 19 $6 +$6 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $74 +$28 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $37 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 19 $36 +$16 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 19 $98 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $73 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 19 $58 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $22 +$14 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $70 −$45 -64%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $47 +$18 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$2 +59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $74 −$46 -62%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $35 −$15 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $27 +$3 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $117 +$45 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $18 +$12 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $253 +$64 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 19 $41 +$28 +68%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $37 −$37 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $6 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 46m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $74 47m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.10 · official $21.95 · 3500 history records