Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:54:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6B 0x6b9e…d362 sports 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$1,758 (+39%) realized +$1,770 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +90% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +65% what you keep after slip
Net edge+65%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%17W / 24L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% +$2,568
sports 40% −$869
crypto 1% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+71.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +89.7% +71.6% 41% 41% +25.1%
≤30d 41 +89.7% +71.6% 41% 41% +25.1%
≤90d 41 +89.7% +71.6% 41% 41% +25.1%
all 41 +89.7% +71.6% 41% 41% +25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +71.6% 41% +25.1%
10% +55.2% 39% +13.2%
15% +40.2% 39% +2.2%
20% +26.5% 32% -7.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +90% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +55% → late +123% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$203 vs −$73 · ×2.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$1,770
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses17 / 24
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage6d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 24 $75 +$257 +344%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $33 −$33 -99%
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? Jun 23 $10 +$230 +2238%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 −$48 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $128 −$125 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $228 −$223 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $610 +$830 +136%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $529 −$521 -99%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 22 $128 −$125 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $735 +$351 +48%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 22 $231 −$226 -98%
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 22 $34 +$84 +250%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $226 +$826 +365%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $7 −$7 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 22 $172 +$154 +90%
Cabo Verde to win the second half? Jun 22 $7 +$47 +650%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $15 +$100 +650%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $5 +$8 +152%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $5 +$2 +48%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$10 +101%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Tunisia to score first vs. Japan? Jun 21 $41 −$40 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $9 +$73 +786%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $303 +$132 +44%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 20 $66 −$65 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $46 +$133 +291%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $201 +$40 +20%
Australia to score first vs. United States? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $170 +$179 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Qatar 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $33 2h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 22¢ $75 2h
England vs. Ghana: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 26h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $20 26h
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 26h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $50 26h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 12¢ $128 43h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 19¢ $228 43h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 45h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $509 45h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $529 2d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 21¢ $128 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $735 2d
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY Yes 25¢ $231 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $226 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $7 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
New Zealand to score first vs. Egypt? BUY Yes 28¢ $34 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 26¢ $15 2d
Cabo Verde to win the second half? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 13¢ $15 3d
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $172 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 2.5 BUY Under 67¢ $5 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Under 49¢ $10 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $41 3d
Tunisia to score first vs. Japan? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $20 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.65 · official $87.65 (match) · 64 history records