Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:35:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6ba1…88c1 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$87 (-11%) realized −$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +7.2% -3.0% 33% 33% -14.5%
≤30d 9 +7.2% -3.0% 33% 33% -14.5%
≤90d 9 +7.2% -3.0% 33% 33% -14.5%
all 9 +7.2% -3.0% 33% 33% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 33% -14.5%
10% -12.3% 33% -22.7%
15% -20.7% 33% -30.1%
20% -28.5% 33% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$29 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized−$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Over 63¢ 64¢ $95 $96 +$1 (+1%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Over 45¢ 44¢ $73 $72 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 23 $26 +$45 +174%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $43 +$27 +61%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $66 −$50 -76%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $17 −$1 -6%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $144 −$6 -4%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $48 −$48 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $131 −$5 -4%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $66 −$66 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $60 +$72 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 96¢ $70 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $74 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 34¢ $26 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $70 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $97 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $43 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 9¢ $16 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 20¢ $16 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $139 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $144 4h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $66 7h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 52¢ $66 7h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $48 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $17 27h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $67 27h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $132 27h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $60 29h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 50¢ $60 29h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $64 40h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $66 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.12 · official $167.36 (match) · 22 history records