Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:46:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6ba3…7f7b world 34 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-2%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$10
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% −$9
other 12% −$5
sports 5% $0
politics 3% $0
crypto 3% −$3
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.9% -12.1% 22% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 15 -7.7% -16.5% 27% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 15 -7.7% -16.5% 27% 0% -10.9%
all 33 -7.5% -16.3% 42% 0% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 0% -11.6%
10% -24.3% 0% -20.1%
15% -31.6% 0% -27.8%
20% -38.3% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage466d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 96¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $99 −$1 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $2 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $97 +$1 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $33 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $53 −$2 -4%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $32 −$6 -19%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $55 −$1 -2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $60 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $41 +$1 +4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $44 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $34 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $8 +$1 +9%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 28 $5 $0 +2%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 22 $8 −$3 -37%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 22 $5 $0 +4%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 11 $8 $0 +1%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw May 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? Apr 16 $11 −$1 -13%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Mar 29 $13 $0 +1%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Mar 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $13 $0 +1%
Will Feyenoord or Inter Milan advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $49 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 19¢ $9 9h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $1 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 19¢ $8 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $28 16h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $17 16h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $36 20h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $9 20h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 27h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 31h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 67¢ $44 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $13 40h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $32 40h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $13 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $32 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $46 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 27¢ $21 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $13 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $21 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $52 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 39¢ $51 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $14 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.81 · official $48.81 (match) · 113 history records