Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:51:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6ba6…1d42 crypto 291 markets active 2h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$766 (-15%) realized −$766 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%101W / 190L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days−$19
14 days−$37
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$511
sports 27% −$302
politics 7% +$75
world 6% −$26
finance 3% +$33
other 2% −$53
tech 1% +$2
culture 1% +$4
weather 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +3.9% -6.0% 33% 33% -26.9%
≤30d 14 +8.2% -2.1% 43% 43% -20.5%
≤90d 231 -58.4% -62.4% 19% 15% -49.0%
all 291 -10.6% -19.1% 35% 29% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 29% -23.0%
10% -26.8% 27% -30.4%
15% -33.9% 24% -37.1%
20% -40.4% 23% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$14 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$766
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses101 / 190
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)291 / 291
History coverage149d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 291 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$56 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $10 +$15 +146%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $20 +$27 +133%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $17 +$3 +18%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $10 −$9 -90%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner May 30 $19 +$41 +218%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $90 −$35 -39%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $10 +$9 +90%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 25 $10 −$7 -72%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 24 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 22 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 22 $26 +$25 +97%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner May 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $185 +$8 +4%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 13 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner May 13 $60 −$60 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 12 $10 +$3 +27%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 11 $21 −$20 -98%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Ch May 11 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 10 $20 +$10 +52%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $209 +$113 +54%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 06 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 06 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 06 $35 −$35 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5) May 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET May 06 $16 −$15 -94%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $10 +$23 +226%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 03 $10 +$31 +307%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 02 $10 +$7 +67%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 01 $20 −$19 -95%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 30 $62 +$5 +8%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 30 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Apr 30 $80 −$22 -27%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $10 +$7 +70%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $10 +$3 +26%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 29 $5 −$5 -92%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 29 $31 −$28 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 29 $11 +$67 +634%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 58¢ $50 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $4 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $15 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $3 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $2 7d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $26 7d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 46¢ $9 8d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 40¢ $10 9d
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY G2 Ares 42¢ $20 13d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? BUY Yes 85¢ $17 19d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL JD Gaming $1 23d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 49¢ $4 23d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 49¢ $5 23d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 11¢ $1 24d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 10¢ $1 24d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 4 Winner BUY Team WE 41¢ $17 24d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 56¢ $55 24d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $63 24d
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 90¢ $27 24d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 40¢ $8 25d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY BNK FEARX 52¢ $10 27d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner SELL Nongshim Red Force $3 29d
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Nongshim Red Force 17¢ $10 29d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In BUY Weibo Gaming 38¢ $10 30d
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 57¢ $10 30d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Invictus Gaming 20¢ $10 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 32d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi BUY JD Gaming 62¢ $10 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 727 history records