Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:19:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6ba6…b221 other 235 markets active 1h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$65 (-0%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%11W / 223L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$17
14 days−$26
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$36
sports 25% −$19
culture 6% −$4
politics 6% −$4
economics 5% −$3
crypto 4% −$2
world 3% −$3
tech 2% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 234 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses11 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)234 / 235
History coverage127d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $393 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $134 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $179 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $220 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $261 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $338 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $364 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $396 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $329 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $212 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $261 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $348 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 14 $136 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $120 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $556 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $743 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $242 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $401 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $245 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $585 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $139 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $170 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 10 $360 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $240 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $59 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $371 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $244 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $453 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $137 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $147 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $219 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $381 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $199 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 07 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $300 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $562 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $374 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $206 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $63 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $513 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 1h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 2h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 3h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 6h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 7h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 11h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $55 13h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $55 14h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $55 16h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 18h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 20h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 21h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 23h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 24h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $55 25h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 27h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 28h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 30h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 31h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $56 33h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 35h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 36h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 38h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $56 43h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $56 45h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.53 · official $54.53 (match) · 1272 history records