Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:29:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bab…c45e sports 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$121 (-5%) realized −$117 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate58%29W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$341now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$9
other 18% −$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -2.6% -11.8% 58% 56% -13.0%
≤30d 50 -2.6% -11.8% 58% 56% -13.0%
≤90d 50 -2.6% -11.8% 58% 56% -13.0%
all 50 -2.6% -11.8% 58% 56% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 56% -13.0%
10% -20.3% 56% -21.3%
15% -28.0% 50% -28.9%
20% -35.0% 36% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$42 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$341
Realized−$117
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses29 / 21
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions4
Markets (closed)50 / 54
History coverage5d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 71¢ 46¢ $210 $137 −$73 (-35%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 100¢ $55 $95 +$40 (+72%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 100¢ $50 $67 +$17 (+34%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 71¢ 100¢ $30 $42 +$12 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
RS Berkane vs. OC Safi: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 18 $20 +$12 +59%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$14 +69%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $30 +$9 +30%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $30 +$12 +39%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $41 +$24 +59%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $26 +$30 +118%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $21 +$22 +104%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $42 +$31 +75%
RCA Zemamra vs. Raja Club Athletic: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$10 +51%
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $22 +$10 +43%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $41 +$11 +28%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$28 +113%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $51 +$19 +37%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target Jun 17 $61 +$18 +30%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$32 +64%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$10 +49%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $40 +$82 +205%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $98 +$52 +54%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $88 −$88 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $104 −$104 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $132 −$7 -5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $42 +$29 +69%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $24 +$27 +113%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Sandnes Ulf vs. Stroemmen IF: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $105 +$93 +89%
Keflavik IF vs. FH Hafnarfjordur: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $41 +$15 +37%
Sandnes Ulf vs. Stroemmen IF: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Keflavik IF vs. FH Hafnarfjordur: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $165 +$62 +37%
FC Inter Turku vs. AC Oulu: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $41 +$25 +61%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $29 +$16 +56%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 14 $36 +$26 +72%
FF Jaro vs. HJK Helsinki: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $24 +$17 +69%
FF Jaro vs. HJK Helsinki: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $110 +$49 +45%
FC Inter Turku vs. AC Oulu: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $36 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $51 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $20 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $30 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $30 6h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $20 6h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 62¢ $20 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $20 6h
RS Berkane vs. OC Safi: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $15 12h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $17 23h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $41 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 24h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $26 25h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $21 27h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $42 27h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $32 38h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $25 38h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $25 38h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. Difaâ Hassani El Jadida: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $22 39h
RCA Zemamra vs. Raja Club Athletic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $20 39h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $41 46h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $46 46h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $55 47h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $24 2d
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $25 2d
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $51 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $51 2d
Erling Haaland: 2+ shots on target BUY Yes 76¢ $61 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $51 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $341.39 · official $341.39 (match) · 108 history records