Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6baf…eba7 other 137 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,032 (+1%) realized +$1,032 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate15%21W / 115L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$1,007per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$830now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$20
14 days−$23
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$897
politics 31% −$28
sports 9% +$154
world 4% −$7
economics 2% −$3
culture 1% −$1
tech 1% −$1
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 65 +1.4% -8.2% 8% 3% -8.4%
all 136 -4.6% -13.7% 15% 9% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 9% -8.9%
10% -21.9% 8% -17.6%
15% -29.5% 7% -25.5%
20% -36.4% 6% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,419) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$7 · ×12.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$830
Realized+$1,032
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses21 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)136 / 137
History coverage154d
Avg bet$1,007
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $831 $830 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $3,023 −$4 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,664 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,226 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $4,360 −$6 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,313 −$2 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,221 −$2 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 11 $1,426 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,168 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,148 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,036 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,090 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $461 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in May? Jun 02 $710 +$1 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,499 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $731 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $1,100 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,020 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,129 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $1,447 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,200 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $2,079 −$3 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $4,198 −$5 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $2,487 −$3 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 06 $1,501 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $1,285 −$2 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $1,586 −$2 -0%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 29 $1,170 +$249 +21%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,607 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,518 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $4,094 −$4 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $1,254 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $1,274 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,588 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,569 −$2 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 13 $2,378 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $1,534 −$2 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $1,645 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $1,654 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $1,684 −$2 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $1,469 +$1,154 +79%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $125 by end of March? Apr 01 $48 $0 +0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $2,437 −$2 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 28 $1,167 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 26 $1,334 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 25 $1,198 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Mar 25 $1,183 −$2 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $2,953 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $721 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $722 4h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $831 31h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,662 2d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,664 3d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,224 3d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,226 4d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,304 4d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,307 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,311 5d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,313 5d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,219 5d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,221 5d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $1,425 6d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $1,426 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,166 10d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,168 10d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $814 11d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $815 11d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,434 14d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,436 14d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,682 14d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,685 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,035 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,036 14d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,088 15d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,090 15d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $711 17d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $712 17d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $747 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $830.18 · official $830.18 (match) · 419 history records