Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T08:11:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bb2…732e crypto 85 markets active 2d ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$906 (-42%) realized −$906 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate27%23W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$179
14 days−$179
30 days−$490
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$834
sports 2% −$50
other 2% −$32
finance 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-42.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -7.9% -16.7% 41% 35% -33.3%
≤30d 37 -15.4% -23.5% 38% 32% -54.2%
≤90d 49 -31.8% -38.3% 31% 27% -49.3%
all 85 -36.4% -42.4% 27% 25% -48.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.4% 25% -48.7%
10% -47.9% 25% -53.6%
15% -53.0% 20% -58.1%
20% -57.6% 19% -62.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -46% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$25 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$906
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses23 / 62
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage147d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions (53 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$13 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$50 +933%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18? May 17 $197 −$186 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? May 17 $56 −$53 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 16? May 17 $73 −$73 -100%
Will FC Mito Holly Hock win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Shōnan Bellmāre win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Vanraure Hachinohe FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Albirex Niigata vs. Nara Club end in a draw? May 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bordeaux: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Quentin Halys May 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Oeiras 4: Hugo Dellien vs Laslo Djere May 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Zagreb: Zsombor Piros vs Lukas Neumayer May 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bordeaux: Arthur Rinderknech vs Martin Damm May 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 15 $95 +$108 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 15 $47 −$44 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET May 15 $22 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Mar 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $26 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $26 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $6 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $52 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $51 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $56 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 155 history records