Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:44:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6B 0x6bb2…ff95 politics 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 332d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$2,459 (+122%) realized +$2,473 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +44% what you keep after slip
Net edge+44%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 100% +$2,442
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+44.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +166.9% +141.5% 100% 100% +141.5%
≤90d 6 +98.7% +79.8% 67% 67% +142.1%
all 9 +59.6% +44.4% 56% 56% +138.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +44.4% 56% +138.7%
10% +30.6% 56% +115.9%
15% +18.0% 56% +95.0%
20% +6.4% 56% +75.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +168% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +60% · $-wt +164% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$498 vs −$8 · ×60.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×76.22 per $1 lost it wins $76.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

332d coverage
Net worth$246
Realized+$2,473
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage332d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $260 $246 −$14 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 15 $180 +$300 +167%
Will Donald Trump announce Ken Paxton as the next United States Attorn May 28 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 28 $101 −$1 -1%
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Sen May 20 $196 +$341 +174%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 20 $942 +$1,771 +188%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 13 $38 +$62 +163%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Mar 04 $10 +$14 +144%
Will Dawn Buckingham win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Aug 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Beth Van Duyne win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Aug 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $216 1h
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 40¢ $480 14d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes $35 26d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 26d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 26d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 26d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 16¢ $52 26d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 26d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 26d
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 20¢ $41 31d
Will Donald Trump announce Ken Paxton as the next United States Attorn SELL Yes $0 31d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 58¢ $52 31d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $519 31d
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Sen SELL Yes 91¢ $538 40d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL Yes 94¢ $601 40d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 52¢ $48 46d
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 48d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $100 76d
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 38¢ $38 85d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 63¢ $30 87d
Will Donald Trump announce Ken Paxton as the next United States Attorn BUY Yes $12 87d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL Yes 39¢ $81 109d
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Sen BUY Yes 33¢ $196 111d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 14¢ $49 116d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 11¢ $35 116d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 116d
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL Yes 88¢ $24 116d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? SELL No 88¢ $2,031 116d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY No 35¢ $644 321d
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? BUY No 38¢ $70 331d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $245.55 · official $245.55 (match) · 66 history records