Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:24:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bb5…a518 sports 350 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (53 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7,637 (-83%) realized −$6,139 · open −$1,498
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate23%176W / 581L
Whale WR8%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day52.6pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$3,666now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 60d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$41
sports 39% +$606
world 1% −$102
crypto 0% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (53 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-36.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 415 -91.5% -92.3% 3% 3% -96.2%
≤30d 418 -91.3% -92.1% 3% 3% -96.2%
≤90d 757 -29.5% -36.2% 23% 22% -72.1%
all 757 -29.5% -36.2% 23% 22% -72.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.2% 22% -72.1%
10% ← realistic here -42.3% 20% -74.7%
15% -47.9% 16% -77.2%
20% -53.0% 14% -79.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -74% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 8% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +36% → late -94% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$49 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$3,666
Realized−$6,139
Unrealized−$1,498
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses176 / 581
Whale WR (big bets)8%
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions25
Markets (closed)757 / 350
History coverage60d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day52.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 757 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,721 $845 −$875 (-51%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 68¢ 56¢ $930 $769 −$161 (-17%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 64¢ 99¢ $330 $510 +$180 (+54%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 18¢ $100 $174 +$74 (+74%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $200 $140 −$60 (-30%)
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? Yes 73¢ 84¢ $120 $140 +$20 (+16%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes 52¢ 56¢ $127 $135 +$8 (+6%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 58¢ 74¢ $93 $118 +$25 (+27%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 48¢ 67¢ $78 $109 +$31 (+39%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 88¢ 86¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? No 53¢ 52¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? No 36¢ 36¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? No 24¢ 24¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 43¢ 24¢ $32 $18 −$14 (-43%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 19¢ 1¢ $356 $14 −$342 (-96%)
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? Yes 83¢ 75¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-9%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? No 59¢ 60¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-11%)
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $193 $1 −$193 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 474 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charlton Athletic FC win on 2026-04-18? Jun 18 $381 −$386 -101%
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
BMW Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Alex Molcan Jun 18 $32 −$33 -103%
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-04-17? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-04-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-04-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Barcelona Open: Alex de Minaur vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Barcelona Open: Pedro Martinez vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 18 $201 −$223 -111%
Will 1. FC Nürnberg win on 2026-04-18? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Linda Noskova vs Elina Svitolina Jun 18 $25 +$9 +36%
Spread: Rockets (-4.5) Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Antonia Ruzic vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 18 $1 −$2 -168%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-04-17? Jun 18 $151 −$158 -105%
Auckland FC vs. Central Coast Mariners FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Henan FC win on 2026-04-18? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Sydney FC vs. Perth Glory FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $16 −$21 -130%
LoL: Joblife vs Ici Japon Corp. Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-04-25? Jun 18 $51 −$51 -100%
Will AC Sparta Praha win on 2026-04-18? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Real Salt Lake vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Millonarios FC vs. CA Boston River: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Rajasthan Royals Jun 18 $584 −$655 -112%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elise Mertens vs Ella Seidel Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Busan: Yunchaokete Bu vs Marat Sharipov Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Southampton FC vs. Blackburn Rovers FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will AEK win on 2026-04-16? Jun 18 $62 −$62 -100%
Will Fluminense FC win on 2026-04-15? Jun 18 $149 −$150 -100%
Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. Çaykur Rizespor end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$3 -129%
Will Atlético San Luis win on 2026-04-17? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $123 −$119 -97%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parl Jun 18 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2026-04-13? Jun 18 $97 −$101 -103%
Will Haras El Hodood SC win on 2026-04-13? Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Tisza win at least 120 seats? Jun 18 $338 −$338 -100%
Barcelona Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Andrey Rublev Jun 18 $113 −$119 -106%
Will Millonarios FC vs. CA Boston River end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hull City AFC vs. Birmingham City FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Real Valladolid CF win on 2026-04-13? Jun 18 $50 −$56 -111%
Will Kasımpaşa SK win on 2026-04-19? Jun 18 $8 −$10 -124%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-04-17? Jun 18 $272 −$279 -102%
Will CA Tigre win on 2026-04-16? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Kopriva vs Darderi Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Dellien vs Aboian Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 18 $11 −$11 -104%
Tallahassee: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Nicolas Kicker Jun 18 $31 −$88 -283%
Will MFK Karviná win on 2026-04-18? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $71 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 36¢ $61 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 79¢ $101 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $25 3h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 5h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 88¢ $100 5h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 5h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 5h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY No 42¢ $15 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $61 12h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $51 12h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $10 24h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 61¢ $10 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 39h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $10 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $100 27d
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Se SELL Yes 41¢ $5 29d
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Se SELL Yes 41¢ $9 29d
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Se SELL Yes 41¢ $13 29d
Will James Talarico and John Cornyn be the candidates for the Texas Se SELL Yes 41¢ $82 29d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 35d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 35d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 35d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 35d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 35d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,665.75 · official $3,666.70 (match) · 3500 history records