Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T15:08:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6B 0x6bb6…8e4a other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 239d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$353 (-14%) realized +$56 · open −$409
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +48% what you keep after slip
Net edge+48%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$986now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$429
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+47.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -1.5% -10.9% 50% 50% -11.1%
≤30d 3 +3.1% -6.7% 67% 67% -8.1%
≤90d 3 +3.1% -6.7% 67% 67% -8.1%
all 7 +63.1% +47.6% 43% 43% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +47.6% 43% -11.2%
10% +33.5% 29% -19.7%
15% +20.6% 29% -27.5%
20% +8.7% 29% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 94% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +63% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$291 vs −$224 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$986
Realized+$56
Unrealized−$409
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)7 / 14
History coverage239d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $280 $315 +$35 (+12%)
Will Tijjani Reijnders score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 66¢ $184 $249 +$65 (+35%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $675 $238 −$438 (-65%)
Will Takefusa Kubo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 37¢ $213 $148 −$64 (-30%)
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 58¢ $39 $32 −$7 (-17%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Amad Diallo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $52 −$51 -98%
Will Brahim Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $32 +$4 +12%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $125 −$125 -100%
Will PSV win on 2026-01-28? Jan 28 $234 −$234 -100%
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-01-20? Jan 20 $112 +$820 +732%
Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch? Oct 23 $484 −$484 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 79¢ $8 2h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $147 3h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $136 6h
Will Tijjani Reijnders score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $4 24h
Will Tijjani Reijnders score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $25 33h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $52 5d
Will Tijjani Reijnders score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 59¢ $14 7d
Will Tijjani Reijnders score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 59¢ $6 7d
Will Brahim Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 76¢ $35 7d
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 66¢ $2 9d
Will Tijjani Reijnders score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $228 9d
Will Takefusa Kubo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $216 9d
Will Brahim Díaz score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $32 9d
Will Amad Diallo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 9d
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $47 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 15d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $288 15d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $412 15d
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 34¢ $125 142d
Will PSV win on 2026-01-28? BUY Yes 18¢ $234 142d
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-01-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $932 149d
Will AFC Ajax win on 2026-01-20? BUY Yes 12¢ $112 149d
Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 48¢ $19 238d
Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 44¢ $18 238d
Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 50¢ $447 238d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $986.21 · official $986.21 (match) · 44 history records