Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:39:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6B 0x6bb7…a3f7 sports 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$250 (+21%) realized +$271 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%25W / 20L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$35
14 days+$35
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$168
other 30% +$81
world 4% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +119.4% +98.5% 100% 100% +88.5%
≤30d 5 +83.5% +66.0% 80% 80% +1.1%
≤90d 35 +25.8% +13.8% 54% 54% -0.3%
all 45 +30.2% +17.8% 56% 56% +11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.8% 56% +11.5%
10% +6.5% 56% +0.8%
15% -3.8% 53% -8.9%
20% -13.2% 53% -17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +30% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$26 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$271
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses25 / 20
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)45 / 48
History coverage116d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Over 57¢ 20¢ $13 $4 −$9 (-66%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 54¢ $86 $0 −$86 (-100%)
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Over 49¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Over 54¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $23 +$21 +93%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 14 $9 +$13 +146%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $87 −$86 -99%
Celtic FC vs. Dunfermline Athletic FC: O/U 3.5 May 23 $41 +$46 +114%
Spread: Celtic FC (-1.5) May 16 $15 +$25 +165%
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 07 $20 −$20 -98%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 07 $21 −$21 -99%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Apr 04 $21 −$21 -98%
Scotland vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Apr 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $23 +$19 +82%
Spread: England (-1.5) Mar 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Netherlands vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Mar 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-03-27? Mar 28 $20 +$25 +127%
Ukraine vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Mar 27 $20 +$18 +92%
Czechia vs. Republic of Ireland: O/U 2.5 Mar 27 $20 +$25 +127%
Poland vs. Albania: O/U 2.5 Mar 27 $20 +$27 +133%
Spread: Celtic FC (-1.5) Mar 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup? Mar 23 $36 +$51 +141%
Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 Mar 22 $20 +$16 +78%
Will Luke Riley win by KO or TKO? Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 21 $20 +$18 +92%
Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Falkirk FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Kilmarnock FC win on 2026-03-21? Mar 21 $20 +$17 +83%
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 21 $25 +$17 +67%
Aston Villa FC vs. Lille OSC: Both Teams to Score Mar 20 $20 −$20 -100%
FC Midtjylland vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 Mar 20 $20 +$22 +108%
SC Freiburg vs. KRC Genk: O/U 2.5 Mar 19 $18 +$15 +85%
Liverpool FC vs. Galatasaray SK: Both Teams to Score Mar 19 $80 −$80 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Mar 18 $45 +$53 +119%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $20 +$97 +488%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $20 +$32 +162%
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card) Mar 08 $125 +$140 +112%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-18? Mar 08 $6 +$9 +150%
UFC 326: Ricky Turcios vs. Alberto Montes (Featherweight, Prelims) Mar 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2026-02-18? Mar 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-02-19? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 22, 2026? Mar 08 $20 −$20 -100%
UFC 326: Cody Durden vs. Nyamjargal Tumendemberel (Flyweight, Prelims) Mar 08 $45 +$13 +28%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $10 +$18 +178%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $20 +$14 +72%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $10 +$31 +314%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $13 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $10 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $20 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY 51¢ $23 7h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 40¢ $9 3d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $87 21d
Celtic FC vs. Dunfermline Athletic FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $87 22d
Celtic FC vs. Dunfermline Athletic FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $41 22d
Spread: Celtic FC (-1.5) SELL Celtic FC 100¢ $41 29d
Spread: Celtic FC (-1.5) BUY Celtic FC 37¢ $15 29d
Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 68d
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $21 68d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 49¢ $21 71d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-04? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 71d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-04? BUY Yes 55¢ $23 71d
Scotland vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $50 78d
Will Germany win on 2026-03-27? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 79d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 34¢ $20 79d
Netherlands vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $20 79d
Ukraine vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $20 80d
Poland vs. Albania: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $20 80d
Czechia vs. Republic of Ireland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 80d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $36 84d
Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $36 84d
Spread: Celtic FC (-1.5) BUY Celtic FC 42¢ $30 84d
Newcastle United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 84d
Will Luke Riley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 85d
Everton FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $20 85d
Will Kilmarnock FC win on 2026-03-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $37 85d
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $25 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.01 · official $34.01 (match) · 102 history records