Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:44:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bb8…7630 other 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 672d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate52%14W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$1
sports 30% +$2
other 14% −$5
world 9% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
finance 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
all 27 -10.9% -19.4% 52% 19% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.4% 19% -9.7%
10% -27.1% 11% -18.4%
15% -34.1% 7% -26.3%
20% -40.6% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

672d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses14 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage672d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 20 $300 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $200 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $200 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $402 $0 -0%
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $322 +$1 +0%
Clavicular charged again by June 30? Feb 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the #2 US Netflix show this wee Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 27-February 2? Feb 11 $1 $0 +18%
Will Israeli troops enter Suwayda in 2025? Jan 26 $2 $0 +6%
Will Casey's General Stores (CASY) beat quarterly earnings? Jan 26 $2 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: RUBY vs SPARTA (BO3) Nov 26 $1 +$1 +59%
Will Mike McDaniel be the next coach fired? Oct 21 $2 −$1 -75%
Will Halliburton (HAL) beat quarterly earnings? Oct 10 $2 −$1 -68%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.30 in August? Oct 10 $2 $0 +22%
Knicks vs. Pistons Aug 02 $2 +$1 +57%
Human to human bird flu transmission before February? Jul 11 $2 $0 +5%
Fed rate hike in 2024? Jan 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Dec 02 $97 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Nov 29 $6 +$1 +24%
Will Miami beat Duke? Nov 07 $5 $0 +5%
100+ monkeypox cases in US by October 31? Nov 02 $22 $0 +0%
Confirmed case of monkeypox in US by Sep 30? Oct 05 $1 $0 +6%
Bengals extend Ja'Marr Chase before regular season? Sep 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Swan Bitcoin insolvent by August 31? Sep 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? Aug 27 $217 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $300 1h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $200 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $191 1h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $190 27h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 27h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $190 27h
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $300 27h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 27h
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $101 39d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $100 42d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $99 42d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $100 42d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $211 65d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $201 65d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $104 67d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $201 67d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $200 67d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $201 67d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $211 67d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $218 125d
Will Sporting win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $218 127d
Clavicular charged again by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $2 128d
Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the #2 US Netflix show this wee BUY No 85¢ $1 129d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 27-February 2? BUY Yes 85¢ $1 145d
Will Casey's General Stores (CASY) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 206d
Will Casey's General Stores (CASY) beat quarterly earnings? SELL Yes 82¢ $1 206d
Will Casey's General Stores (CASY) beat quarterly earnings? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 206d
Counter-Strike: RUBY vs SPARTA (BO3) BUY RUBY 63¢ $1 217d
Will Mike McDaniel be the next coach fired? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 242d
Will Mike McDaniel be the next coach fired? SELL Yes 50¢ $0 242d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 83 history records