Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T11:05:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

6B 0x6bb9…44f9 crypto 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$119 (+16%) realized +$108 · open +$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip

Net edge+23%after slip

Net WR47%break-even

Win rate47%7W / 8L

Drawdown63%max

Avg bet$45per market

Trades / day22.8pace

Kalshi-fit82%portable

Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +47%

net ROI/market (all)+44.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+60.0%	+44.8%	47%	47%	+3.6%
≤30d	15	+60.0%	+44.8%	47%	47%	+3.6%
≤90d	15	+60.0%	+44.8%	47%	47%	+3.6%
all	15	+60.0%	+44.8%	47%	47%	+3.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover22.8 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+44.8%	47%	+3.6%
10% ← realistic here	+30.9%	33%	-6.3%
15%	+18.3%	20%	-15.3%
20%	+6.7%	13%	-23.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 75% · top 2 82% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +60% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +183% → late -48% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$47 vs −$29 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.42 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$101

Realized+$108

Unrealized+$11

Win rate (resolved)47%

Wins / losses7 / 8

Open positions2

Markets (closed)15 / 17

History coverage2d

Avg bet$45

Trades / day22.8

Drawdown63%

Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 15 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?	No	79¢	96¢	$80	$97	+$17 (+21%)
Will Solana dip to $60 in June?	Yes	45¢	18¢	$10	$4	−$6 (-61%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Jun 26	$103	−$100	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Jun 26	$26	−$25	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Jun 26	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Jun 26	$10	−$10	-98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Jun 26	$26	+$15	+57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Jun 26	$51	+$12	+24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Jun 26	$3	−$3	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	Jun 25	$51	+$19	+37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	Jun 25	$76	+$11	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Jun 25	$26	−$26	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Jun 25	$31	−$31	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	Jun 24	$204	+$22	+11%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Jun 24	$16	+$244	+1524%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$10	+$3	+32%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Up	65¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Down	41¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	BUY Up	70¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	BUY Up	62¢	$26	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	BUY Up	88¢	$25	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	BUY Up	72¢	$25	10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	BUY Down	4¢	$3	11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?	BUY No	79¢	$81	28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$70	28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$26	28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$26	28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	SELL Up	100¢	$86	33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$25	33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	BUY Up	83¢	$25	33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET	BUY Up	81¢	$25	33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	BUY Up	71¢	$26	33h
Will Solana dip to $60 in June?	BUY Yes	45¢	$10	34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	BUY Down	69¢	$26	34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	BUY Down	71¢	$5	34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	SELL Up	81¢	$226	35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	BUY Up	80¢	$101	35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	BUY Up	77¢	$25	35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	BUY Up	86¢	$25	35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$26	35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$26	35h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.61 · official $100.40 (match) · 42 history records