Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T11:01:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6B 0x6bba…2c0f sports 15 markets active 8d ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$29 (+0%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$474per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +25.0% +13.1% 50% 50% +9.9%
≤90d 2 +25.0% +13.1% 50% 50% +9.9%
all 15 +1.5% -8.2% 53% 53% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 53% -9.2%
10% -17.0% 53% -17.8%
15% -25.0% 53% -25.8%
20% -32.3% 53% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 44% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$399 vs −$451 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage108d
Avg bet$474
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $6 +$4 +66%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 15 $7 −$1 -17%
Maple Leafs vs. Devils Mar 05 $367 +$338 +92%
Thunder vs. Knicks Mar 05 $717 +$403 +56%
Panthers vs. Blue Jackets Mar 05 $902 −$902 -100%
Pelicans vs. Kings Mar 05 $400 −$400 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors Mar 04 $550 +$415 +75%
Predators vs. Blue Jackets Mar 04 $417 +$328 +79%
Avalanche vs. Kings Mar 03 $698 +$428 +61%
Devils vs. Blues Mar 01 $302 +$302 +100%
Golden Knights vs. Penguins Mar 01 $1,116 −$1,116 -100%
Pelicans vs. Clippers Mar 01 $197 −$197 -100%
Bucks vs. Bulls Mar 01 $372 −$372 -100%
Sabres vs. Panthers Feb 28 $895 +$970 +108%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Feb 27 $170 −$170 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ $6 7d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 60¢ $2 43d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 60¢ $5 43d
Panthers vs. Blue Jackets BUY Panthers 48¢ $902 110d
Pelicans vs. Kings BUY Kings 39¢ $400 110d
Maple Leafs vs. Devils BUY Devils 52¢ $198 111d
Maple Leafs vs. Devils BUY Devils 52¢ $168 111d
Thunder vs. Knicks BUY Thunder 64¢ $717 111d
Predators vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 56¢ $417 112d
Knicks vs. Raptors BUY Knicks 57¢ $433 112d
Knicks vs. Raptors BUY Knicks 57¢ $117 112d
Avalanche vs. Kings BUY Avalanche 62¢ $414 113d
Avalanche vs. Kings BUY Avalanche 62¢ $284 113d
Golden Knights vs. Penguins BUY Golden Knights 58¢ $1,116 114d
Pelicans vs. Clippers BUY Pelicans 31¢ $174 114d
Pelicans vs. Clippers BUY Pelicans 31¢ $23 114d
Bucks vs. Bulls BUY Bucks 60¢ $372 114d
Devils vs. Blues BUY Devils 50¢ $55 115d
Devils vs. Blues BUY Devils 50¢ $248 115d
Sabres vs. Panthers BUY Sabres 48¢ $481 116d
Sabres vs. Panthers BUY Sabres 48¢ $414 116d
Nuggets vs. Thunder BUY Nuggets 26¢ $170 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.10 · official $10.10 (match) · 30 history records