Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:00:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bbc…3638 sports 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$73 (-7%) realized −$70 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate11%4W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$213now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days−$35
14 days−$84
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$80
crypto 29% −$2
other 25% −$165
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-43.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -28.0% -34.8% 11% 11% -16.4%
≤30d 38 -37.6% -43.6% 11% 11% -20.6%
≤90d 38 -37.6% -43.6% 11% 11% -20.6%
all 38 -37.6% -43.6% 11% 11% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.6% 11% -20.6%
10% -49.0% 11% -28.2%
15% -53.9% 11% -35.1%
20% -58.4% 11% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$12 · ×6.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$213
Realized−$70
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses4 / 34
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage10d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 +$131 +426%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $46 −$21 -46%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $32 −$31 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $46 −$36 -78%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $104 −$17 -16%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $28 +$66 +238%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $15 −$5 -36%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 −$2 -11%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 17 $29 −$11 -38%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $27 +$80 +292%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $17 −$16 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $15 +$33 +219%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $32 −$31 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $16 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $206 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $17 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 1h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 13h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 27h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 27h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 46h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 46h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $6 2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $87 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $95 2d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $213.20 · official $213.20 (match) · 106 history records