Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:48:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6B 0x6bc0…af1a sports 792 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$22,447 (-24%) realized −$22,237 · open −$210
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%265W / 524L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day24.4pace
Fees−$1,567est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$320now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$190
7 days−$87
14 days−$1,000
30 days−$2,523
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$22,291
crypto 7% −$998
other 2% −$237
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 +23.8% +12.0% 45% 45% -9.8%
≤30d 408 +1.2% -8.5% 40% 39% -15.9%
≤90d 789 -13.6% -21.9% 34% 33% -33.0%
all 789 -13.6% -21.9% 34% 33% -33.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.9% 33% -33.0%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 33% -39.4%
15% -36.2% 33% -45.3%
20% -42.4% 32% -50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -29% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$132 vs −$111 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$320
Realized−$22,237
Unrealized−$210
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses265 / 524
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$1,567
Open positions3
Markets (closed)789 / 792
History coverage68d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day24.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 789 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Legia Warszawa vs. Basket Zielona Gora Legia Warszawa 48¢ 72¢ $209 $312 +$103 (+49%)
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Paris Basketball 38¢ 7¢ $40 $7 −$33 (-82%)
Ironi Ness Ziona vs. Hapoel Galil Elyon: O/U 173.5 Over 42¢ 0¢ $281 $0 −$281 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 482 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $223 −$11 -5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $114 +$181 +158%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $41 +$74 +180%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $105 −$103 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $10 +$135 +1312%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $147 +$80 +55%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $79 −$78 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $31 +$45 +143%
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Hanfmann/Struff Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 17 $55 −$54 -98%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 17 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 17 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$42 +81%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $154 −$151 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $61 +$93 +152%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $194 −$190 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $57 +$107 +188%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $112 +$108 +97%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano: O/U 169.5 Jun 16 $453 +$268 +59%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $172 −$168 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $80 +$92 +114%
Basket Zielona Gora vs. Legia Warszawa Jun 15 $57 −$56 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $73 −$72 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 167.5 Jun 14 $158 −$156 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $222 −$218 -98%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 14 $108 +$114 +106%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $305 −$300 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: ONIC vs Bigetron by Vitality (BO7) - MPL Ind Jun 14 $51 +$78 +154%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $81 +$118 +145%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $610 −$600 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $112 −$110 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $51 +$71 +139%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $92 +$101 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $81 +$117 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $215 +$465 +216%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $55 +$161 +290%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 167.5 Jun 14 $807 −$794 -98%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $342 −$336 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $342 −$335 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 14 $855 −$840 -98%
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 169.5 Jun 13 $344 −$339 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $230 −$226 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $112 −$110 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $248 −$243 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Legia Warszawa vs. Basket Zielona Gora BUY Legia Warszawa 48¢ $212 38m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $212 39m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $223 54m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $31 55m
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Paris Basketball 38¢ $41 57m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 100¢ $295 59m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 38¢ $114 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $105 4h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 35¢ $20 4h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 35¢ $20 4h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff SELL Paula Badosa 87¢ $145 4h
Ironi Ness Ziona vs. Hapoel Galil Elyon: O/U 173.5 BUY Over 42¢ $286 5h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se BUY SPARTA 40¢ $31 5h
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff BUY Paula Badosa 6¢ $10 5h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 90¢ $227 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $147 6h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 35¢ $28 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 36¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 8h
Halle Open (Doubles): Cash/Tracy vs Hanfmann/Struff BUY Hanfmann/Struff 51¢ $15 8h
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers BUY LG Twins 36¢ $55 8h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Doosan Bears BUY Doosan Bears 12¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $319.56 · official $249.78 · 1715 history records