Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:27:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6B 0x6bc2…2d7d other 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-0%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%9W / 117L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$18
politics 38% −$17
economics 4% −$2
tech 3% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
sports 2% −$2
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 111 -2.4% -11.7% 5% 5% -9.6%
all 126 -2.1% -11.4% 7% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 7% -9.6%
10% -19.9% 6% -18.3%
15% -27.6% 4% -26.2%
20% -34.7% 3% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×9.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses9 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)126 / 126
History coverage116d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 126 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $288 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 27 $737 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 26 $251 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $208 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $217 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $187 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $190 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 22 $250 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $469 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $214 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $426 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $196 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $215 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $220 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $201 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $447 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $258 $0 -0%
Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 12 $240 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $404 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 10 $255 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $193 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $476 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $277 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 04 $238 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $204 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $255 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $495 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $239 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $203 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $224 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $274 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 30 $188 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $792 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $213 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $271 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $221 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $37 6h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 39h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 41h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $24 41h
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $33 7d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $33 10d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 10d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 12d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $22 12d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $22 12d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 13d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 13d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $220 24d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $220 24d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $212 24d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $212 25d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $251 25d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $251 25d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $208 26d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $208 27d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $217 28d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $217 28d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $187 29d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $187 29d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $190 29d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $190 29d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $250 29d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $250 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 377 history records